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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, February 3, 2023, 9:16 am ET Friday morning, the main indices are tracking towards another winning week, the NASDAQ looking at five straight for 2023, the rest would notch a fourth positive out of five. Lagging behind is the Dow, up a mere 75.86 points as of Thursday's close. The NASDAQ appears to be locked and loaded, already ahead 579.11 points (+4.98%). The S&P closed Thursday at its highest point since mid-August of last year, entering Friday up 109.20 points (2.68%). The NYSE Composite is up 159.99 points, exactly one percent for the week. Which direction stocks take Friday is highly dependent on interpretation of January's non-farm payroll report, which, released at 8:30 am ET, showed total non-farm payroll employment rising by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4 percent, a number rivaling the 2.6% unemployment rate from 1953, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure cited by the BLS was far beyond estimates of by the biggest banks and brokerages, with consensus estimates averaging 189,000 and in start contrast to massive announced layoffs tracked by Challenger, Grey & Christmas released on Thursday. Having recently revised their own figures from the second quarter of 2022, from a gain of over 1.1 million jobs in April, May, and June, to a loss of 287,000 in the private sector, the BLS blowout number for January should be completely disregarded by any serious analyst as it is clearly not the product of rigorous accounting and more a political tool to keep the "strong economy" narrative front and center. In a few words, it's complete bullshit, yet more proof (as if anybody needed any) that the federal government lies about everything, all the time. With the Fed's 0.25% rate hike now fading in the rear-view mirror, stocks seem set on a path higher, inflation no longer a major concern for the monied Wall Street class. The star performer thus far in 2023 is clearly the NASDAQ, up 17% year-to-date, it is on a path that is clearly unsustainable, the fresh daily upsides largely a function of one of the most savage short squeezes in market history. META Platforms was up 23.68% just yesterday and is up 51% year-to-date. Other tech stocks are on similar paths. The big three tech firms that reported after the close Thursday each suffered from weak quarterly results. Apple missed on both revenue and earnings, citing iPhone supply chain issues emanating from China's covid lockdown in December, sending shares down more than three percent after hours, though a recovery is underway this morning. Shares are down roughly one percent a half-hour before the cash open. This was the company's first full-year revenue decline since 2019 and the first quarterly earnings miss in six years. After missing Wall Street estimates, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stumbled after hours and into the pre-market Friday on poor advertising results, which accounts for most of the company's profit. Net income fell to $13.62 billion, or $1.05 per share, from $20.64 billion, or $1.53 per share, a year earlier, the sharpest decline for Alphabet in four quarters. Shares are trending down about five percent in pre-market trading. Amazon (AMZN) had fourth quarter net profit of $300 million, or a mere three cents (0.03) per share, down from a split-adjusted profit of $1.39 per share over the same period last year. The stock is being hammered in early trading, down six percent. With the fake jobs report and earnings misses by three of the biggest names in tech, futures are sliding fast as these markets may erase some, most, or all of the week's prior gains. Stocks are in an extremely overbought condition. Something has to give.
At the Close, Thursday, February 2, 2023:
Thursday, February 2, 2023, 9:19 am ET The quest for logic on Wall Street never ends. After the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced another increase to the target federal funds rate, stock traders fumbled around initially, but, as soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell began speaking at the regularly-scheduled press conference, stocks began to rise and continued through the remainder of the Wednesday session. The new rate range is now 4.50-4.75% The NASDAQ, 2022's most beaten-down index was the best, gaining more than two percent on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a nearly 500-point loss to finish slightly positive (up 6.92 points), but the magnitude of the buying was terrific, the 30 blue chips flew from the day's lows at 33,581.42 to its high of 34,334.70 in the span of just more than an hour, a boost of 753 points. Market participants were apparently sated with Powell's repetitive use of the word "disinflation," which he employed no less than a dozen times during his tenure at the podium. The Fed's gearing down to a mere 25 basis point hiking level, with indications of just two more of the same, in March and again in May, was music to the ears of the bulls. Mr. Market is giving every indication to extend the rally that began back in the early days of October on the Dow and S&P. Bears have been completely gored by the horns of the bulls, the short squeeze taking the NASDAQ from a low of 10,213.29 on December 28 to its current level (11,816.32) in just over a month, getting a slower start than the other indices, but very obviously making up for lost time. 1603 points is a 15.70% gain, not bad for part-time work. Thursday morning brought a bevy of earnings reports and the monthly look at layoffs from Challenger, Grey & Christmas, reporting that in January, U.S.-based employers announced 102,943 cuts, a 136% increase from the 43,651 cuts announced in December. The figure is 440% higher than the 19,064 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. Wall Street was unfazed, as futures barely moved, with the NASDAQ again leading the way with futures up by nearly 200 points an hour before the cash open. After the bell on Wednesday, META Platforms (formerly Facebook) released fourth quarter earnings, which missed EPS expectations by a wide margin, but exceeded revenue projections, the company taking in $32.17 billion in the most recent quarter. The EPS miss ($1.76 against expectations of $2.22) was overshadowed by massive spending cuts and the promise of a $40 billion stock buyback. Shares of META are up 20% in the pre-market. The EPS miss was the fourth straight for META, but that doesn't seem to concern buyers at this juncture. Buying back $40 billion worth of its own stock will make up for any shortfalls, even as the company slashed employees and employee benefits, closes some facilities and downsizes leases on various business centers. With the stock rising nearly 30 points (153-182) overnight, Zuckerberg's minions can start buying those shares any time. In morning releases, Estee Lauder (EL) beat on earnings but said the company anticipates a slow re-opening for China and a resultant dent to their profit in the coming quarters. Shares are down about three percent in the pre-market. Bristol Myers Squib saw earnings beat projections but missed on gross revenue. The stock is trading higher in advance of the opening bell. Drug-maker Merck (MRK) blew past earnings estimates with a profit of $1.62 against $1.54 expected, but expressed doubt about future profitability, eyeing diminishing returns in coming quarters. That sent shares lower in the pre-market, with a loss of just more than one percent. While the mood is clearly positive, one asset that failed to join in the fun run was oil. Due to increasing supply builds and slack demand, WTI crude has fallen from above $81/barrel last week to a price of $76.08 and continues to slide. Cheaper oil may not be so good for producers, be they Saudis, Russia, ExxonMobil, or Chevron, but they will likely translate into lower prices for heating fuel and gasoline, coming at a time in which prices have risen over the past few months. That's a positive for North American and European consumers and stocks in general. Gold and silver played right along in somewhat of a contrarian trade. Gold soared as high as $1975/ounce overnight, a major run from the $1940 range at the end of January. Silver, which has been lagging lately but had flown higher than gold in the final months of 2022, closed out January at $23.97, but is currently trading at $24.56, getting a nice bid on Wednesday with gains extending into Thursday. $2000 gold and $26 silver have become reachable targets, though a pullback could throw timing off a bit. Later today, economic reports include Factory Orders and Durable Goods, but the market will be anticipating earnings reports from Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Starbucks (SBUX) after the closing bell.
At the Close, Wednesday, February 1, 2023:
Wednesday, February 1, 2023, 8:56 am ET Amidst a deluge of earnings reports, the Fed's FOMC will issue an interest rate policy directive at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. Widely expected to raise the target federal funds rate by 0.25%, the concern is that the Fed may see purpose to hike the rate by 0.50% as they attempt to quell inflation further. The Fed can be applauded for bringing the inflation rate - as measured by the CPI - down from over nine percent in July to seven percent at the latest reading. While the Fed attempts to thread the economic needle between slowing the economy and stabilizing prices without causing a recession, on Tuesday, the US Treasury managed to unwittingly inject some humor into the narrative, claiming that their department saw no signs of misuse of US funds delivered to Ukraine, just a week after top Ukraine government officials were dismissed or resigned amid corruption allegations. Widespread corruption and graft have been a staple of Ukraine's government for many years. Known as the most corrupt country in Europe, it is astonishing that the US Treasury sees no misuse of the billions it has sent to the country in just the past year. More than likely this is just another case of the US federal government lying about everything, all the time. The level of dishonesty and corruption at the top of the US government is off the charts compared to graft, theft and money laundering in Ukraine. Moving on, companies reporting fourth quarter and full-year earnings this morning include Peloton (PTON), Glaxo Smith Klein (GSK), T-Mobile (TMUS), Altria (MO), and Humana (HUM). Let's start with that paragon of excellence in medical care, Humana (HUM), a company whose stock has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, back in March of 2020. Right off the bat, Humana reports 4Q 2022 loss per share of $0.12 on a GAAP basis, but counters with a profitable adjusted EPS of $1.62; and, reports full year 2022 EPS of $22.08 on a GAAP basis, $25.24 on an adjusted basis. This company practically manufactures money, largely on the back of Medicare Advantage. A crackerjack trading desk brings in more money through investments, and their accountants are about as accurate as the prognoses of most of their practitioners. The company expects to make even more money in 2023, projecting 2023 EPS of at least $28.00. The sicker Americans get, the more money Humana makes. Keeping people on drugs, barely alive seems to be their prime directive. On the other side of the coin, Altria (MO), which makes no bones about its business model - they manufacture and sell tobacco products - reported adjusted EPS of $1.50 and, just for fun, threw in adjusted diluted EPS of $1.18. So much for transparency. At least the company puts its money where it puts its cigarettes. They repurchased 38.1 million of their own shares at an average price of $47.83 (good job; shares spent the second half of 2022 in the mid-40s), for a total cost of $1.8 billion and announced a $1 billion share repurchase program for 2023. Smoke 'em if ya got 'em. The Wall Street Journal offers the ideal snarky headline for Peloton (PTON): Peloton Narrows Losses as Sales Fall Less Than Forecast. Is this the kind of news you want from a company you're looking to buy into?
"Peloton reported another quarterly loss and a 30% drop in quarterly sales, though the company reduced the amount of cash being burned by its operations." Apparently, to some, this make sense. Both Nike and Amazon are reportedly interesting in acquiring the firm that has lost money in each of the last four years, with the largest a $2.83 impairment in 2022. Hey, maybe if we pedal backwards we can turn it around... The company's stock reached an all-time high above 162 amid the peak of lockdowns and stimulus in December 2020, but has fallen to as low as 6.66 per share, recently trading around 11-12. TTM EPS of -6.43, no dividend, with a market cap (amazingly) of $4.4 billion. Gotta get some of that!!! Finally, despite adding nearly 1 million wireless subscribers, T-Mobile (TMOS) barely missed fourth-quarter revenue estimates of $20.60 billion in the fourth quarter, with revenue of $20.27 billion, according to Refinitiv data. The company earned $1.18 per share on revenue against expectations of $1.10. The results may or may not be GAAP-reported, adjusted or diluted, but it seems certain that Verizon and AT&T, the two largest wireless carriers are putting pressure on #3, T-Mobile. Not to be left out, Snap (SNAP) reported adjusted EPS of 14 cents versus 11 cents expected for the fourth quarter, but, a few paragraphs lower in the article, this...
"The company also reported a net loss of $288 million, a stark comparison to the net income of $23 million that Snap reported this time last year." Apparently, one can make this stuff up. Shares are down 15% in pre-market trading, but, that's a loss from 11.56 at Tuesday's close to 9.82 pre-market. With a market cap of $18.65 billion, this company can clearly be seen as either a takeover candidate or bankruptcy filer within the next 6-9 months. Oh, snap, we'll take the latter. PayPal (PYPL) has announced layoffs amounting to seven percent of its workforce, about 2,000 employees. The company reports next Thursday (2/9) as layoffs in the tech space proliferate. Say what you will about PayPal, the company makes money constantly. The market seems to be having a tough time digesting all of this, especially with the Fed in the background. Futures are trending a bit sideways to lower, with Dow futures down 125 points an hour prior to the opening bell. Everybody is looking for a 25 basis point hike by the Fed, which, realistically, should do 50, and still might. Should they go 50 basis points, stocks would roll over and die, probably a 400-point loss on the NASDAQ, and 150 down on the S&P, which is why they probably won't go there. Otherwise, everything's just fine... until two o'clock. Oh, and Tom Brady just announced his retirementŠ again. Probably the best news of the day.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 31, 2023:
Tuesday, January 31, 2023, 9:20 am ET If companies aren't going to report honest gains, they usually resort to "one-time" items or other gimmicks to adjust their profits. Caterpillar (CAT) announced fourth quarter and full year financial results Tuesday morning. While gross revenue was up, profit was down, at least on an "unadjusted" basis. Well, which is it?
Isn't "balance sheet translation" exactly what everybody needs in their financial lives? Try sending a note to the IRS along with your 1040 this year, explaining that your "adjusted" gross income was much lower because of "balance sheet translation." They won't be able to demand an audit fast enough. Essentially, Caterpillar wants investors to believe they shouldn't be penalized by wild swings in FX markets, such as the euro, yen, and British pound suffered through last year. OK, no. Shares are down 1-2% in pre-market trading. After a while, adjusted earnings, being simply an accounting trick, get thrown out with the bath water. Like most other US companies, profits (EPS) are sliding year-over-year. McDonald's (MCD) also reported. Here's the Yahoo! Finance headline: McDonald's Q4 earnings beat estimates, boosted by higher menu prices, digital sales. Shares are down two percent in the pre-market. ExxonMobil (XOM) had a $55 billion profit in 2022 and smashed EPS estimates for the fourth quarter. The stock is trending lower. Pfizer (PFE) is trending lower by nearly three percent after guidance disappointed, the company saying that covid vaccine take-up is slowing. General Motors (GM) announced an earning beat, top and bottom line, and that stock is higher. Futures are trending higher after Monday's washout. That is not likely to translate well. Everybody's on pins and needles over Wednesday's FOMC policy decision. Consensus says the Fed will hike the federal funds rate by a mere 0.25%, though 0.50% remains a possibility. If it's the former, expect the recent rally in stocks to continue, despite January closing out with over-the-top gains based on short squeezing. Tuesday could be a snooze-fest, with real market action reserved for Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement.
At the Close, Monday, January 30, 2023:
Sunday, January 29, 2023, 11:11 am ET Have all the bubbles been popped? That seems to be a question nobody wants to ask or answer, even though there's an appearance of a return to normalcy given recent economic data, like the 2.9% GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2022, slowing inflation, or those ultra-low initial unemployment claims the past few weeks. Cross-currents tell a different tale. As we'll see in this chilly edition of the Weekend Wrap, there are still bubbles to be burst and maybe even some new ones forming, the worst of which may be the currency itself. Candidates for bubbles not having been burst are stocks, housing, and credit, not necessarily in that order. Stocks It was another positive week for equities, led by the NASDAQ's outrageous 4.32% jump. All of the majors were higher, the third such occurrence this year for all, except the NAZ, which is on a winning streak of four straight. Year-to-date, NASDAQ is up more than 11%. Lagging behind are the S&P (+6%) and the Dow, up just over two percent, inclusive of all the final fifteen minute tape-painting of just about every session this year. Winning with equities has so far been the theme of the year, boosting hopes for a rebound off a dismal 2022 as fans of the January Barometer (roughly 70% predictability rate) are already touting. Corporate earnings have been a mixed bag, leaning to the downside. There have been more than a few disappointments and probably more to come, though investors have managed to shrug shoulders at Negative Nellies, as is the usual practice. The coming week will be full of intrigue, with a heavy barrage of big-name corporate earnings reports, a FOMC policy rate announcement Wednesday and non-farm payrolls for January due out prior to the bell on Friday, February 3. The Fed is largely anticipated to hike the federal funds rate only 25 basis points which would keep markets buoyant, pushing the target federal funds rate to 4.50% to 4.75%. January non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 225,000. The biggest names begin reporting on Tuesday, with Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT), General Motors (GM), McDonald's (MCD), Amgen (AMGN), Snap (SNAP) and UPS (UPS) notable. Wednesday sees reports from Waste Management (WM), Peloton (PTON), Altria (MO), and Meta Platforms (META). On Thursday, February 2, reports from Shell (SHEL), Merck (MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), Ford (F), and Estee Lauder (EL) are in focus. Friday's offerings include Sanofi SA (SNY), Regeneron (REGN), Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) and Cigna (NYSE:CI), all before the open.
While there wasn't any startling movement in treasuries the past week, looking back to December 30, yield on short-term bills (1-month to 6-months) were all lower, while notes and bonds (1-year to 30-years) were higher, the market reeking of yield curve control (YCC). At the extremities, 1-month bills that were yielding 4.12% on December 30 are now at 4.61%, reaching a high of 4.70% this past Tuesday. 30-year bonds could get you 3.97% less tha a month ago; on Friday, yield was quoted at 3.64%. Spreads continue displaying a completely inverted curve, turning the banking maxim of "borrow short, lend long" on its proverbial head. Fully from 1 month out to 30 years, the spread is -97 basis points, the 6-month/10-year spread is largest at 129 basis points (4.81-3.52). Along the way are aberrant bumps from 1-month to 6-months and the odd 0.25 rise in yield from the 10-year to the 20, then back down 13 basis points to the 30-year bond. Treasuries are suggesting that short-term money is tight, longer term, looser. Such a construct does a number of things, not the least of which is keeping mortgage rates artificially low, along with corporate borrowing, which is typically five to 15 years. Banks and other financial companies in the shadow banking sphere are able to borrow at low rates long term and lend out short term, on auto loans, credit cards, and personal loans to the tune of 12-28% and sometimes even higher. Banks should be making money hand over fist in this environment, but fourth quarter 2022 failed to confirm this for the biggest short term credit lenders (i.e., loan sharking) like Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan Chase, Discover, and CapitalOne. Earnings results were mixed, the worst of it from the biggest credit card issuer, CapitalOne (COF), which failed to beat estimates for the third time in the past four quarters and added voluminously to their provision for credit losses. The company's Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.82 was well below the average analyst estimate of $3.86, and down significantly from $4.20 in Q3 2022 and $5.62 in Q4 2021. Revenue of $9.04B fell short of the $9.07B consensus, but was better than the $8.81B in the prior quarter and up from $8.12B in the year-ago quarter. Provision for credit losses was $2.42B, leaping from $1.67B in the prior quarter and $381M a year ago. Banks are readying for a recession and consequent credit card defaults. For now, they're seeing increasing slow payers, but, unless economic conditions suddenly improve, slow pay will become no pay. Six months out (maybe sooner) banks are going to be hit with waves of consumers cutting up cards, busy repo men, and recent home buyers upside down on mortgages versus equity. For want of a better term, there's the biggest bubble yet to pop: consumer credit. With interest rates through the roof (usury), it's at an all-time high.
The price of a barrel of WTI crude seems to have hit a speed bump at $80, the price settling out Friday at $79.38 after some forays above the $80 level. This week saw a drop off from a two-month high of $81.69 last week. Pricing structure in futures and supply-demand dynamics with Russian crude as a backdrop suggest some stabilization at this level is possible. Prices at the pump keep rising, the national average up roughly a dime from last week's $3.41/gallon. According to gasbuddy.com, the Sunday moring price is a somewhat alarming $3.505 per gallon. Southeastern states continue to enjoy the lowest prices in the US, but they are all up over $3.00/gallon, with Texas winning the low-price prize at $3.10. Florida and Georgia are the highest prices in the region, at $3.55 and $3.38, respectively. California remains the most expensive, averaging $4.50, with Washington jumping to $4.06 this week. No other states are above the dreaded $4.00 level, though Nevada continues to close in, at $3.94. The Midwest and Northeast are seeing prices anywhere from $3.19 (Kansas, Missouri) to $3.79 in liberal utopias: $3.79 in Pennsylvania and $3.80 in Colorado. Bitcoin Bitcoin continues to push steadily higher, quoted at $23,508.71 early Sunday morning. Reports are stating that most of the gains have come from institutional investors, which would indicate to those mostly cynical of the future of cryptocurrencies that recent gains are nothing more than a liquidity trap set by savvy, unscrupulous Wall Street back room types. Those who successfully speculated their way from around $16,000 to current levels are worthy of congratulations, now facing a future of potential rug-pulling or advancing prices in the face of IRS scrutiny as all of the gains have occurred in January. The most-hated federal agency just sent out a friendly reminder that all filers must fill in the checkbox at the top of all 1040 forms, even going so far as to indicate when one must check "yes" and when one can check "no." It looks like a trap, one that could potentially trigger audits and the recent price movement appears to be nothing more than an attempt by heavy-handed institutions to recoup some of last years' massive losses. Good luck, coiners.
Gold/Silver Ratio: 81.91; last week: 80.82
Gold price 12/30: $1,830.10
Silver price 12/30: $24.18 After last week's blowout in silver and gold, this week saw gold maintaining its lustrous pricing while silver was banished to the island of suppressed monetary metals by COMEX traders and price fixers at the LBMA. Thus, silver is even more a bargain than last week, reflected by the sudden drop-off on the Sunday eBay survey, a dip of more than $2.00, which may become a stabile area as shorts are determined to keep the price below $24.00 and are doing a bang up job of it so far. Calls for explosive moves higher in the precious metals sphere are being encouraged by BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) exploring the creation of an alternative reserve currency, including the use of gold as a standard of exchange. According to Sergey Lazrov, the concept will be a highlighted discussion at the group's forthcoming summit this August in South Africa. One suggestion currently circulating is to peg of a gram of gold to an ounce of silver, which would, for all intents and purposes, be a fairly easy and reliable standard. There being 31.1034768 grams in a troy ounce, at current prices, a gram of gold would equate to $62.50, the gold:silver ratio equal to the 31.1034768 grams in a troy ounce of either metal. Should gold be priced at $2500, one ounce of silver would then become $80.38. Of course, there's always the possibility that the realists in the BRICS+ greater south may re-establish some older ratio at which to peg the metals, maybe 16:1 or 12:1. No matter what, silver remains the bargain of a lifetime and for those with a bent toward leveraging a brighter future, business and consumer tax incentives and credits have never been so generous for solar installations, the added benefit of reliably cheap solar energy getting a value boost from the fractional amounts of silver in a standard solar panel, about 20 grams per 1.8 square meter panel. That said, while reducing one's reliance on the grid and saving (often significantly) on electric bills, even a dead solar panel might be worth upwards of $20 after its useful life of 25 years or so has been expended. Scientists in England discovered a new method of extracting silver from solar panels just last year using brines instead of mineral acids to extract metals.
Whether gold and/or silver take off toward stratospheric levels, understanding the preponderance of more than 5000 years of evidence of precious metals as not only currency, but as real, sound money, is a preeminent consideration.
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was lower, dipping to $37.15, a decline of $2.14 from the January 22 level of $39.29.
Economists may be cherry-picking the data, but cherries are up 40% from two years ago. That kind of sentiment is the one attaching itself to the current rally, which has been identified as a massive short-squeeze on the most shorted stocks, especially in the tech space. The likes of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet (Google) and others are all up more than 10% on the year. Amazon is most remarkable, up nearly 20% in January alone, rising from 83 to 102 in a matter of just three weeks time. Topping the charts (HA HA) is Nvidia (NVDA), which has gained 40% this year. On December 30 it closed at 146.14, and on Friday finished the session at 203.65. There are bubbles forming everywhere and they just could get worse. Housing prices have yet to succumb to higher interest rates for mortgages. With the average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage of 6.48%, buyers haven't quite choked on the bill just yet, but median new and existing home prices have fallen, though not by enough to call the bubble burst. Many firms are calling for price declines of under five percent in 2023 for both new and existing homes, while some say prices will actually rise this year as 6-7% mortgages become the norm. US housing may be the biggest bubble out there and it hardly appears at the popping stage. Didn't we hear similar messaging back in um... 2008? The coming week will be full of something, be it excrement or excitement.
At the Close, Friday, January 27, 2023:
For the Week:
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