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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, August 9, 2024, 9:07 am ET And so, we come to the close of a most exciting and volatile week on Wall Street. Stocks were buffeted around by the winds of change, the cheerleading for rate cuts turning into cries of recession after last Friday's non-farm payroll numbers disappointed. Oddly enough, even after Thursday's rally, the major indices head into the final trading day of the week still in the red, below the August 2nd closing prices. As of Thursday's closing bell, the Dow was down 290 points, ending the session right at its 50-day moving average. How convenient! The NASDAQ only needs 116 points to avoid a fourth straight losing week, while the S&P 500 is down 27 points for the week and would also register a fourth straight losing week unless a rally somehow emerges from the carnage. Thursday's trading was insightful, if only to remind traders that some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets, which will soon be confirmed. The NASDAQ ended Thursday still in correction territory. From its peak close of 18,647.45 on July 10, the NASDAQ is down 10.66%. Insiders would prefer that item be not mentioned as trading resumes on Friday, but the facts speak for themselves. Despite herding momentum chasers through the muck of Thursday's capped gains, doubts about the sustainability of the rally - heading for its 10th month - remain. As earnings reports begin to dwindle to lesser-known names (though retailers Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) will be heard from next week, and Lowe's (LOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Target (TGT) the following week) the market will be forced to consume more mostly negative data as August rolls along. Signs for a continuation of the rally to close out the week are not encouraging. Futures, which were flat-lining earlier, are beginning to crater as the opening bell approaches. WTI and Brent crude oil are both higher on the week as fears of the Middle East spiraling out of control persist. The VIX, measuring volatility, remains elevated. European stocks are well off their morning highs and headed lower. Bitcoin, which gained over $5,000 on Thursday, is lower by more than $1,000. If U.S. stocks cannot manage an extension of the rally and finish without recovering above last Friday's close, the market would be set up for further downside, which appears to be the logical scenario as valuations, still sky-high, appear to matter once again.
At the Close, Thursday, August 8, 2024:
Thursday, August 8, 2024, 9:11 am ET The plan, as it were, to induce dip buyers to step into unstable market conditions on Wednesday didn't work out so well. At the start of the session, prompted by rising futures prior to the bell, the effort seemed to be going well for about the first hour thanks to a gap higher right out of the gate. Between 10:00 and 11:00 am ET is when traders got a bit skittish, as stocks tested the lows from Friday (August 2) and found considerable resistance to any move beyond those points. Comparing Friday's lows with Wednesday's highs clearly defines the resistance areas:
Dow: Friday low: 39,393; Wed. high: 39,447 Stocks managed to get past the Friday lows, but not by much. As soon as the weakness was discovered, momentum chasers realized where stocks were headed and began piling in, exerting selling pressure throughout the rest of the session. Top to bottom the Dow dropped 745 points, the NASDAQ slipped 530, a three percent move, and the S&P was slapped down 135. It wasn't pretty. Second quarter earnings reports continued to roll out on the weak side, one of the main catalysts for recent overall poor performances by the major indices. Contributions to the ongoing second quarter earnings debacle included Amgen (AMGN), which missed EPS expectations and reported a 45.9% decrease in net income in the second quarter compared to the same period of the previous year. Air B&B (ABNB) missed earnings expectations and were punished to the tune of a 13.38% loss on Wednesday. Softening revenue from Yum Brands (YUM), which owns and operates thousands of KFC and Taco Bell outlets, contributed to the growing consensus that inflation has made consumers very cautious. The company's second quarter results were mostly in line with analyst calls. Share price has follwed the market lower after an initial earnings boost. CVS managed to beat EPS estimates by a dime, but the stock still declined as the company's long-term performance has left investors on edge. Shares of the drug store vendor are down 24% year-to-date. The market is very jittery, not just over corporate revenues and profits, but various other geo-political and presidential election concerns. Prior to Thursday morning's unemployment claims announcement, stock futures were languishing near the flat line, but when the Labor Department reported initial claims down to 233,000 from last week's 250,000, futures responded as if the White Sox had won the World Series (the White Sox, with the worst record in the majors, 28-89, recently tied the AL record for consecutive losses at 21, but managed to snap the streak with a 5-1 win at Oakland Tuesday. Alas, they lost 3-2 to the A's Wednesday). The move in futures, based on improving employment prospects is nothing short of complete hypocrisy by the inside pump-and-dump gang which largely controls the thin futures trading. For months the chorus has been humming the rate cut theme, looking for weakness wherever it could be found. Now that weak economic figures are popping up everywhere, they're cheering for a stronger economy. Somewhere, Jerome Powell is looking at a Bloomberg terminal, a wry smile coming across his face. The market appears to be willing to let him escape from the monetary trap that's bound him up for over a year without lifting a finger. No rate cuts? No problem. Well, let's see about that. Looking suspiciously like another iteration of the pump-and-dump routine, stocks may try to re-test those August 2 lows.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 7, 2024:
Wednesday, August 7, 2024, 9:08 am ET Now that the market turmoil that started in earnest August 1st has been sufficiently downgraded by Wall Street big mouths as little more than a "blip" or minor technical correction, major institutions must go about reassuring their investors that the U.S. economy is sound, the Middle East isn't going to blow up, presidential politics won't involve any more assassination attempts, and that their money is safe in Apple, Google, Bank of America, the QQQs, bitcoin ETFs or any of the multitude of offerings on the second-hand used stocks lot that is the world's financial market. While that cynical perspective may not be exactly what long-term currency hoarders wish to hear, it is largely the truth. The global economy is built on a foundation of fiat currencies, which the Fed or any other central bank worth its salt can conjure up at will. To the bankers at the Fed, the BOJ, People's Bank of China (PBOC) or ECB, it's all just one giant confidence game, plying the unsuspecting masses with what basically is Monopoly money to have them believe they are somehow rich, or wealthy, or secure. It's really rather sad that the vast majority of investors can't do math sufficiently well enough to realize that whatever they think they hold, it's deteriorating at a quite rapid clip, with inflation eating through nearly all of their investments. The purchasing power of the major currencies - the dollar, yen, pound sterling, Swiss franc, and the euro - have eroded by as much as 97% since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and that time is running short on the three percent or less that remains. But, normalcy bias being the dominant mental condition after Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), the rubes, the top 10-percenters who own most of the stocks, have to put their money somewhere, and they suspect that cash isn't actually a good place to be, when in fact, it appears, at the present time, to be the perfect solution. Just ask Warren Buffett, mastermind founder of Berkshire-Hathaway, who sold off most, if not all, of his Bank of America (BAC) and Apple (AAPL) holdings over the past few weeks. His firm is sitting on a mammoth pile of the stuff, possibly as much as $300 billion. In its latest quarterly filing Berkshire-Hathaway pegged its cash horde at $277 billion, and that was only through June 30. The "Oracle of Omaha" has been selling even more since then. While cash is usually shunned in the long term, it often has great benefits in the short run. When companies or individuals are short on funds, cash holders can pretty much make up any kind of deal they like, buying up stressed assets for pennies on the dollar, financing acquisitions at high interest rates and leveraging that cash position to higher multiples. In short, cash buyers always get the best deals and Buffett must be seeing stress everywhere to bulk up his cash position to record levels. Wall Street's best hucksters don't want to mention Warren Buffett's maneuvering, or, they'll throw shade on him, calling him an "old man," or saying he's lost the magic touch. Buy more of this, or that, or whatever. It always comes back, and, if they're lucky, they might be right. Stocks could easily ramp higher over the next few weeks, especially if the rate cut chorus has their way. The Fed is largely expected to cut interest rates at their September meeting, about six weeks hence. During the recent downspout for stocks, there were some voices calling for emergency cuts, NOW!, others, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs analysts saying the Fed could cut up to 100 basis points (1.00%) or more in just the next four to five months. That's their pitch, their grift, their slightly awkward batting stance. Bad news for the economy begets good news for stocks. Good grief! That's quite the load!
At the Close, Tuesday, August 6, 2024:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024, 9:20 am ET The global panic set off by Japan's NIKKEI and TOPIX indices tanking 12% as the BOJ set about hiking interest rates, strengthening the yen, and wrecking the carry trade, turned out to be just another tactic by institutional investors to shake out weak retail hands. The NIKKEI rebounded 10% on Tuesday, but guess how long those buyers will be holding those stocks? Not very long. It did the trick, as stock indices around the world were hit hard. Europe's DAX, FTSE, CAC-40, and IBEX (Spain) all got sent down around three percent, as did U.S. equity bourses. The game was most obvious in the U.S., as lows of the day were made right after the opening bell, followed by incessant ramping and swapping out throughout the remaining sessions, especially true on the NASDAQ. While the big money plays its pump-and-dump games, what is being masked is wholesale declines in bank stocks, which was outlined in Money Daily's Weekend Wrap, posted Sunday, August 4. A liquidity crisis more severe than that which broke the banks in 2008 is unfolding, though mainstream financial media remains smug and quiet about it. The Fed, stuck between raising rates and killing the market completely, standing pat and letting chips fall where they may (their current option), and lowering rates to spike stocks and re-inflate, are allowing the treasury market to do most of the talking. Long-dated maturities are quickly making a path toward dis-inversion. The 2s-10s pair actually did dis-invert (normalize) for a few moments on Monday, but just as quickly corrected, sending the 10-year up to 3.78% and the 2-year to 3.89% by the end of the day for a -11 basis point spread. Part of the Fed's game is to get longer-term rates lower, so as to enable the U.S. Treasury to lower its borrowing costs and lengthen the overall debt maturation, the sweet spot being at five and seven-year notes yielding 3.62% and 3.66%, respectively. Those rates can and will likely go lower as the jittery stock markets repeat their dipsy-dos, and money flows to the safety of fixed income. In that manner, the Fed doesn't have to lower rates and appear politically-motivated as the elections approach, now less than three months out. In te weeks and months remaining before the U.S. elections, expect more of this kind of volatility in both directions in stocks. They will waver up and down multiple times. It wouldn't even surprise anybody if new records were made on the major indices, though the more likely path is lower by 20-30% by November, possibly even lower, depending on the election polls and outlook. If the Democrats insist on keeping the completely unelectable Kamala Harris as their candidate, the election will go to Trump, the current deep state powers planning to dump a wrecked economy on his lap. Or, they could steal the election again, setting off what would eventually turn into an ugly civil war. They also could turn the war machine up to a degree that World War III gets underway, impose martial law, suspend elections and do all manner of craziness. Nothing is off the table for these power-driven sociopaths. So, enjoy the show, but, don't be fooled. Notice how gold didn't drop much at all, though silver continues to defy laws of economics, nature, and logic. The buying opportunities in precious metals, especially silver, will be available for some considerable time. The show is just getting started. In baseball terms, it's about the second inning.
At the Close, Monday, August 5, 2024:
Sunday, August 4, 2024, 12:15 pm ET Stocks continued to slide and everybody piled into fixed income, as treasury yields were jolted lower and spreads diverged. Gold hit a new record. Stocks In as few words as possible, stocks were absolutely crushed this past week.
Dow: -852.08 (-2.10%) The NASDAQ shed more than three percent for the second time in three weeks. In between, it lost 2.08%. By the close of trading on Friday, the NASDAQ had entered correction territory on a closing basis, down 10.04% from the July 10 closing high of 18,647.45. On an intraday basis, it was worse, from a high on July 11 of 18,671.07 to a low Friday at 16,582.79, the depth was -11.18%. While the Dow and S&P haven't suffered as much on a percentage basis, they're reading from the same playbook. For perspective, pull up any five-year chart or longer and see what the past three weeks look like in the larger scheme. The declines are barely blips in an overall ascending market from the March 2020 bottoms. If this week's declines are to be taken as seriously as they should, with all due regard toward preservation of capital (fear) as opposed to making gains (greed), this looks like the opening salvo of a bear market that may manifest itself over the coming weeks and months. This coming Monday, August 5, will be exactly three months to the U.S. elections. The time to prepare has passed. It's time to take action because the frenzy that's about to unfold isn't likely to end any time soon. Earnings reports, despite some of the big tech names posting second quarter numbers took a back seat to three distinct data drops. The first was the Thursday morning release of weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department which saw intial claims rise to their highest level in 11 months, 249,000. At 10:00 am ET on Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management put out its monthly Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), showing "economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracting in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months..." The report pegged Manufacturing PMI at 46.8%, the lowest in nine months (November, 2023, 46.6). That set the equity markets on its ear, with stocks dropping like rocks throughout the Thursday session. Friday's July Non-Farm Payroll report from the BLS, however, took the booby prize, when the July jobs figure came in far below expectations, at 114,000, causing Wall Street to openly panic, despite getting what they'd been clamoring for - news bad enough for the Fed to cut interest rates - the past two years. Prior to that, overnight Thursday into Friday, Japan's Nikkei stock market, which was already in correction territory, crashed 5.81%, sending that index down a cumulative 15 percent, from the recent all-time high July 11 of 42,224.02, down to a close Friday (Japan time) of 35,909.70. France's CAC-40 Index, which was also already down more than 10%, tacked on another 1.61% loss Friday as U.S. and European markets were reeling. The DAX dropped 2.33% on the day, the FTSE, 1.31%, Spain's IBEX. 1.67%. The warnings were everywhere, from sky-high valuations, to overextended consumer credit, to massive government deficits (U.S. government debt bounded past $35 trillion during the week), to the collapsing commercial real estate market. Those caught wrong-footed deserved to be carted away and buried. Those who believe there will be a dead cat bounce Monday or that the recent declines are normal corrections don't know a thing about how bear markets start: violently, and from tops set at the culmination of long bull runs. Charts show the whole picture if one takes the time to look. The upcoming week ought to supply more fireworks, mostly from earnings. Monday: CSX Corporation (CSX), Tyson Foods (TSN), Carlyle Group (CG). Tuesday: Amgen (AMGN), Caterpillar (CAT), Uber (UBER), Airbnb (ABNB), Duke Energy (DUK), Celsius Holdings (CELH), Yum! Brands (YUM). Wednesday: Disney (DIS), McKesson (MCK), CVS Health (CVS), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Shopify (SHOP). Thursday: Eli Lilly (LLY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Expedia (EXPE). Friday: AMC Networks (AMCX), American Axle (AXL).
Bonds and notes rallied to extremes this week as investors - or, whoever was dumping stocks en masse - fled to the relative safety of treasuries, sending yields plunging on all notes, from 2s to 10s, all falling below four percent for the first time since March through May of 2023, during the banking scare that saw three mid-sized banks need rescues. The degrees by which yields fell was unprecedented. On Friday alone, the 10-year note yield fell 19 basis points, the two-year, 28. Week-over-week, yield on the 10-year dropped 40 basis points. The two-year yield fell by 48 basis points, nearly a half percent. The most pertinent question that needs to be asked and answered: is another banking crisis on the horizon? Or, rather, was the banking crisis that began in March, 2023 ever fully cleared? Evidence from the last week of trading seems to indicate that there may be another shoe to drop shortly. A few of the suspect banks include these, with 5-day losses shown in parentheses:
Key Corp. (KEY, -12.38%) The list goes on and on and on. Even the larger, national banks got whacked:
Wells Fargo (WFC, -12.44%) The damage to the banking sector can be attributed to a couple of things, the most prominent being the plain intersection of fear and greed, which always and everywhere guides equity investing, or, as the current case may be, divesting. All banks are at risk due to factors which include, but surely are not limited to commercial real estate loans going bad and the entire sector crashing, overinflated residential housing prices, upside-down bank balance sheets, with many institutions holding securities bearing interest rates below two percent to maturity while wishing to unload them, and a general sense of dread and fear by depositors that "their money" (which in banking terms is actually an unsecured loan to a bank) isn't safe in anything covered by FDIC. Speaking of which, the FDIC, together with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, issued a warning letter to banks a little more than a week ago, on July 25, about risks associated with third party vendors [PDF], complete with more than 50 advisory resources and links to documents. Though not specifically mentioned in the letter, the subset of service providers and fintech intermediaries has reached a critical level, one at which the regulators fear banks cannot control. The companies involved in everything from payday loans to cryptocurrency vendors and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPLs) operations number in the hundreds, if not thousands, starting with giants such as PayPal, Square, and Stripe, down to tiny operations like BuyMeACoffee and Car Title lenders, which are only loosely regulated. It's almost as if the Fed and the Comptroller of the Currency were telegraphing disruptions and distortions that appear to be growing and manifesting themselves daily. Spreads went in opposite directions, with 2s-10s shrinking to a level net seen since Money Daily began recording nearly a year ago, to -08, while full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) got completely re-inverted to the extreme, at -143, a number last seen at the end of last year (12/29/2023: -157). Guessing at what all this activity means isn't an adequate position. Money in America isn't safe in banks, online, or anywhere but under mattresses in cash or in hard currencies like gold and silver in one's own hand. It's a hard reality to consider, but it appears that the financial condition propagated over the past four years by the Federal Reserve, with able assistance from the U.S. Treasury and free-spending congress, coupled with the untenable situation at the executive branch being a rudderless, nuclear-armed ship of state and other issues piled on top is about to blow completely sky-high. In case anybody thinks the statement above is hyperbole, consider the events unfolding in the Middle East, on the campaign trail, at U.S. and European borders, and on Wall Street as just the beginning, as it were, shots across the bow of the American dreamboat. Meanwhile, the propagandist mainstream media harps on about the "election", which is nothing but, rather a media campaign designed to undermine Trump and promote Kamala to an unsuspecting public. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
Speculators in WTI crude oil got what they deserved for ignoring the signs of slack demand even during the peak driving and vacation months, as crude got spanked this week, down to $74.14, a huge drop of more than $2 from last Friday's New York close of $76.44, now the challenging the lows from June 2nd ($73.25) and early February ($72.28). Summer travel season will gradually wind down. Schools in some Southern states are already back in class. WTI is down 15% from the April high of $86.91. Oil and gas production are at extremely strong levels globally, and especially in the United States. Despite producer's efforts to crimp supply, demand is very weak, and there's little anyone can do about that except lower prices, which continues to be the dominant direction. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.46 a gallon, down four cents from last week. Prices at the pump are easing in many parts of the country, stabilizing in others. California, as always, is #1 in the U.S. at $4.59 a gallon, the lowest price in six months. Prices eased in Pennsylvania by another four cents, to $3.57, remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is nearby at $3.56, followed by Connecticut ($3.51) and Massachusetts, and Maine, both at $3.45 and lower on the week. Maryland dropped to $3.41. Prices in the Midwest are now beginning to stabilize or correct. Illinois, after a few days over $4.00, backed off to $3.96 this week. Mississippi continued with the lowest prices in the country, down further this week to $2.90, and the only state besides Louisiana ($2.96) in the U.S. under $3.00. Oklahoma and Texas are both at $3.01, with Arkansas at $3.04, Alabama, $3.05, Tennessee, $3.06, and South Carolina at $3.10. Georgia ($3.26), and Florida ($3.45) went in opposite directions, with Georgia dropping, Florida rising. The Midwest ranges between lows in New Mexico and Kansas ($3.18), to highs of $3.67 in Michigan and $3.61 in Indiana, most in a range between $3.28 and $3.40. Missouri is down, at $3.20; Ohio, eased off 13 cents, to $3.45. Arizona dropped three cents, at $3.42 and remained below $4.00 for a 13th straight week, leaving only California and Washington ($4.19) above the $4.00 level. Oregon checked in at $3.89 and Nevada at $3.91, both down marginally. Utah was stable ($3.50), but Idaho ($3.61), saw the first price hike in months.
This week: $58,956.30 Beside all its other magical properties, Bitcoin gets traded all the time, every day, 24/7, doesn't take off for holidays so you can make or lose money at any given time, without notice, like today, a pleasant Sunday morning, where hodlers are being treated to a three percent dive courtesy of your friendly shyster Wall Street insiders. The entire cryptocurrency market is a scam of unimaginable proportions.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.68; last week: 86.67 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/5: $2,399.80
Silver price 7/5: $31.52 Contrary to what equity market were doing, gold made a new all-time high on Friday of $2,519.60 on the COMEX continuous contract. Silver also gained on the week, but, as it is the mortal enemy of central banks and greedy fiat currency promoters everywhere and forever, it is still a good $20 below its all time high. If anything, the ESF and insiders at the CME, COMEX, LBMA, and bullion banks are manipulating silver much more aggressively than gold. They do not EVER want to see silver used as currency EVER again. Too bad for them. It's coming. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell more than two percent the course of the week, to $38.55, losing $1.05 cents from the July 28th price of $39.60 per troy ounce. Prices are hitting mania levels for gold. Silver should follow along, now that the riggers have pegged the gold:silver ratio at 86 two weeks in a row. One-ounce gold coins are now fetching well over $2,500, with numismatics ranging even higher. Despite being just for poor people, one ounce silver coins and bars are still pricing upwards of $31 just about everywhere.
Any projections for asset prices have to be seen from jaundiced eyes, glossed over by electioneering, propagandizing, political fabrications, and general malaise, but it appears the plan, whether overt or otherwise, is to crash the economy leading into the election, or, at least make it appear that all bets are off. From the most cynical perspective, the deep state will steal another election, with the completely unelectable (and largely unintelligible) Kamala Harris taking the prize over Donald Trump, who, for all intents and purpose, will be too old to run in 2028, so that's that. Since Kamala is fit only to make appearances and cackle on "The View", once she's in place, he plan will be to somehow dispose of her and install Pennsylvania Governor - and likely VP running mate - as America's president so that undying fealty to the state of Israel and genocidal wars will be unquestioned. Things could be different, and should be, as Fearless Rick opined this month in the August issue of idleguy.com. Wishing the outlook was better, that's a wrap.
At the Close, Friday, July 26, 2024:
For the Week:
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