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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
11/14-11/20/2021
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Happy Holidays: Markets Get Black Friday Shock Treatment With New Virus Scare Friday, November 26, 2021, 8:43 am ET Just give up. That's the message being sent today by the evil cabal running the virus freak show. While Americans were celebrating Thanksgiving, unseen forces were busy at work undermining the global economy in what appears to be a major push leading into the holiday season. Apparently, just in time for Black Friday, a new strain of the mystery virus has appeared in South Africa, which, of course, threatens life as we know it. Here's the Yahoo! Finance take on the situation. (Please note that Yahoo! Finance, and all of Yahoo!, is owned by Verizon. These are a totally owned "journalists." Not a single one of them gets published without strict editorial approval. In general, their articles are superficial trash.) So, you wake up on Black Friday thinking you're going shopping to get some neat deals at the big box store or the mall, but then you see the scary headlines. Will you be part of a new super spreader event. You can bet your bottom dollar that within two weeks that will be at least part of the story: "Covid cases on the rise from Black Friday super spreader event." It's all complete fiction designed to get you and your kids to get jabbed, boosted, and develop all kinds of unusual symptoms forever so that Big Pharma can create more treatments to take every last penny from you. Or, better yet, the jabs just kill you. That is where we're at and where we've been since February, 2020. It's disgusting and an insult to the intelligence. Here's where markets were trading Friday morning: S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,623.25, -75.75 (-1.61%) Dow futures (YM=F): 34,973.00, -776.00 (-2.17%) NASDAQ futures (NQ=F): 16,224.50, -141.50 (-0.86%) Japan's NIKKEI 225 was down 747.66 (-2.53%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 659.64 points (-2.67). %As of about 8:30 am ET, European markets are all down around three percent, led by France's CAC-30, down 255.74 (-3.61%). The FTSE is off 198.77 (-2.72%). The fear is real. The threat is bogus. Money Daily's take on this urgent development is to wait it out over the weekend. Rash actions, like selling all your stocks, should be avoided. Hold. Wait, Watch. Learn. Understand that what is happening on the macro level does not necessarily have to have an effect on your micro life. Instead of shopping for Christmas presents, it would probably be more prudent to stock up on food, gas, and other necessities. If you've been thinking of installing a wood-burning stove or hooking up an external generator for power outages, now would be a good time to do so. Hope for the best. Brace for the worst. Here's a post that lays out the truth of what's happening. There's more out there. Get informed outside the mainstream media. Those people are liars. US equity markets close today at 1:00 pm ET. Happy Hunting!
At the Close, Wednesday, November 24, 2021:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021, 9:16 am ET Inflation is at the highest level in more than 30 years. That's a fact. Not even the pretentious Jen Psaki can deny that (though she most certainly will try). Right of the bat, on Thursday, your Thanksgiving turkey dinner is going to cost more than last year, which means more than ever.
The American Farm Bureau Federation conducted its 36th annual survey indicating the average cost of this year's classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 is $68.72, or about $6.87 per person. That's about 14% more than the same meal cost in 2020. Eat well. Get your money's worth, because the higher prices you pay today and beyond are not the actual issue. The true culprit behind higher consumer and producer prices is not your grocer or his/her supplier. They are just passing along increased costs to the next level The enemies lurking behind the price stickers are the US government and the Federal Reserve. Together, via excessive money printing (the Fed) and over-the-top stimulus (the government) they've managed to debase your currency and reduce your purchasing power. It's simple supply and demand economics in a pandemic-wrapped nutshell. Together, the Fed, by creating more currency via QE ($US) and the government doling it out to more and more people faster than ever via stimulus checks, rent and mortgage forbearance, extended and additional unemployment benefits, and, the final kicker, a 25% increase in food stamp allotments which began in October and will never be rolled back, have destroyed the purchasing power of the currency. The result: everything costs more. Once you've recovered from the annual Thanksgiving gorging and football fiesta (bread and circuses), you may want to head out to the malls or big box stores for some holiday shopping. Get ready for some serious sticker shock and supply constraint. There will be fewer items from which to choose and they will cost more. Even at discounted prices, most gift-giving items will cost more than they did last year, and they will be in shorter supply, thanks to the intense bottleneck at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, higher gas prices, and a growing driver shortage. Everything will cost more this year, from the lights to the ornaments to the toys and trinkets you and millions of others purchase as gifts. Oddly enough, Wall Street and the mainstream media will flaunt these excesses at you. There may be record buying for the first two weeks of the Christmas season, but after that, pow! the prices will go straight to the moon. If, by chance, we all make it to New Year's Day and 2022, there are two ways the economy can go. Either the government will notice that consumer spending is slowing in real terms (minus inflation) and ramp up their currency-debasement with another round of stimulus checks, more QE at the Fed and so on, or, these august bodies of authority will sit back and do nothing, forcing austerity on the public. It's probably going to be a little of both because there are elections (as if they mattered) in November, 2022, but there's a real chance that the economy will slip out of their control and into a recession. Already this morning equity futures are collapsing on news that initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since 1969 (199,000) and the second estimate of 3rd quarter GDP came in at 2.1%, just a tick higher than the initial call of 2.0%, remaining at sub-recovery levels. Anything lower than three percent on the GDP reading is a massive fail, and fourth quarter estimates, though higher, will be mostly aided by the incessant cycle of inflation. Taking out inflation at 6.2% from that third quarter GDP reading, leaves real GDP at -4.1%. Essentially, the United States is already in a recession. The people in power just don't want you to know about it. The initial claims data suggests full employment, which is actually the case. There are more jobs than available workers and people are quitting at record numbers. If people want to work, there's plenty out there. Later on Wednesday, at 10:00 am ET, the University of Michigan final reading on consumer sentiment and the current PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) will be released and markets could react strongly to what are expected to be numbers indicating increasing displeasure and inflation, respectively. So, with markets closed on Thursday and a half-day session on Friday, what could kick off the worst-ever, most-expensive-ever holiday season than a mini-crash on the stock market. Enjoy the wealth effect because it's not going to last. Happy Thanksgiving!
At the Close, Tuesday, November 23, 2021:
Tuesday, November 23, 2021, 9:29 am ET Monday's manic markets demonstrated the fragile nature of the current financial system. While, on the one hand, markets cheered as Joe Biden chose Jerome Powell to remain as Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, stocks, bonds, bullion, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled in the less-jubilant aftermath. Powell became the 16th Chair of the Federal Reserve after his nomination was confirmed by the Senate on January 23, 2018 by an 84-13 vote. Powell assumed office as chair on February 5, 2018. He faces re-confirmation in the Senate. Opposition, headed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, is limited. He is expected to sail through the process even though some critics will question him on ethics amid the scandalous insider trading which has resulted in the retirement of at least three Fed officials. While trading by Fed officials is not a crime, nor is it banned by their by-laws, it is frowned upon in many circles. In the end, nothing will come of it. Stocks soared on the Powell news, but gold and silver were especially hard hit for no reason other than the belief that Powell will continue dovish policies at the Fed, continue to wind down asset purchases, and is likely to raise interest rates at least twice in 2022.
To get an idea of the carnage following the Powell announcement, consider: A wholesale selloff in treasuries saw the 30-year yield rise from 1.91% to 1.98%. 2-year notes gained 11 basis points, from 0.52% to 0.63, as did the 5-year, rising from 1.22% to 1.33%. The benchmark 10-year note gained nine bips, from 1.54% to 1.63%. Those moves flattened the curve in the middle or "belly" to 30 basis points between the 5s and 10s, a huge move from 44 basis points less than three weeks ago. The broader 2s-30s flattened out to 135 basis points, from 155 on November 4. All of the various moves in the treasury complex point to tightening business conditions, a recipe for a 2022 recession. Gold was absolutely gobsmacked. From the opening of trade in the Far East at 6:00 pm ET Sunday, at 1,845.00, gold has fallen more than 55 points, to a current bid of 1,791.90. Silver, which opened Sunday at $24.56, is currently being quoted at $23.52. Bitcoin continued to drag along the bottom range of recent pricing, in a range from $55,377 to $57,527. Some sources are claiming the radical movements in stocks to be caused by large "gamma unclenching," which, as best as can be derived, means leftover losses and wrong-footed bets from Friday's options expiration. Futures are close to unchanged in the US, but whatever happened on Monday seems sure to spill right over into Tuesday's trading. Happy Hunting!
At the Close, Monday, November 22, 2021: Sunday, November 21, 2021, 12:07 pm ET Stocks pretty much drifted through a lackluster week of trading, with the Dow and NYSE Composite suffering the worst of the losses, the S&P flattened, and tech showing solid gains on the NASDAQ. Primarily, this trading regimen continues to display tendencies of nothing better than highly-coordinated institutional bias. While individual equities are allowed some latitude, the major indices remain strapped into upside ranges, with weekly gains and losses limited to two-to-three percent - mainly to the upside - as data, rumors, news, and fundamental analysis has largely been replaced by an oligopoly, consisting of major brokerages, darp pools, the NY Fed's trading desk and a smattering of private offices. Pension fund and other large conglomerations are allowed to swing to and for the fences, reined in by the aforementioned dark monsters lurking at the bids. In the ongoing regime, stocks are allowed only infrequent realignments, such as the February-March corona crash, though that episode was able to show just how well-aligned are Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury Department. In a word, it's a farce. Nothing about the record levels in stocks reveals even a hint of the underlying economies, in the US, Europe, Japan, or just about anywhere else, and there's a large spillover effect to all other asset markets, which can be plainly seen in the corrupt commodities markets, focused primarily on oil and precious metals. The controlled nature of equity markets may take a back seat only to that of the US treasury market, which, given the power and unlimited resources of the Fed and other central banks, is a massive fair value failure. Everything is driven by rate suppression and money printing, which has gone from being merely out of control to an absolute monstrosity of monetary witchcraft. The Keynesian economists have wholly distorted all markets to the benefit of only themselves and their oligarch companions. The rest of the world can go fly kites if they can even find any wind. Promoting all of this is the climate change contrivance, pushing past the equally phony virus "cases" machinations used to control the general public. The downbeat vibe of the most recent climate conference - COP26 - showcased the abject audacity of the oligarch class, flying in via hundreds of private jets to sling an agenda that blames individuals, small businesses, and farmers as the worst offenders in the CO2-emissions cacophony when its obvious that governments, big business, and military forces are, far and away, the worst of the worst. It is the climate change agenda that threatens to tax the middle and lower classes up to 100% of their income and property, assuring an enslaved majority cowing to the wishes of a small aristocracy hellbent on totalitarianism and control. There's little for the individual to do but play along and try to limit the damage from the troika of government repression, blown-out taxation, and non-stop propaganda which allows for the glorification of medicine over intellect and self-determination. They put shots in our arms and plastic in our foods and expect everyone to bow in reverence to their asinine edicts, rules, laws, and regulations. Most of the advanced nations are being reduced to Potemkin villages, superficially robust, but with an enduring and advancing rot beneath. The world had best be prepared for not just a "dark winter" but a "dark ages" which could last for decades, whole populations beaten down and savages by the elitist overlords which dictate our every action. We are supposed to work, consume, watch football, and pay tribute to their brilliance as the global economy splinters into shards of inequality, discontentment, and despair. Make sure to watch "It's a Wonderful Life" for the 14th time, since it's propagandist message has been well-ingrained into the proletariat psyche. Escape from the dystopia involves a complete rejection and repudiation of all authority, be it societal, political or monetary. The best and brightest of the restricted classes have already retreated from blue cities to red rurals, from developed countries to those less so, and from dollar dominance to alternate currencies, from gold to silver to bitcoin to barter. True freedom can only be achieved by physical relocation to areas of limited governance, little political pressure and financial choices devoid of fiats, restrictions, and taxation. Surely, the pathways to freedom are not for everybody. Most people are ignorant of the forces by which they are opposed and oppressed, willfully or otherwise. Others fear being stigmatized and are frozen in place by the rampant normalcy bias advanced by the propagandists. The few fighting back or attempting to flee are fed up, disgusted, disquiet and courageous. While their numbers appear to be growing, the state, and the oligarchs in control of them continue to amplify their efforts to demean and diminish them. They are still winning. Treasuries moved in such unpredictable ways this week as to consider them explosive, other than what's now beginning to become a relentless flattening of the yield curve, as 2-year notes held steady while longer maturities rallied and sent yields lower. The spread on 2s-10s and 2s-30s, which were, on November 2nd, 1.10 and 1.50, respectively, finished the week at 1.02 and 1.39. The inversion at the long end, with the 20-year yielding 1.95% and the 30 going for 1.91% persisted for what now amounts to 3 1/2 weeks, beginning on October 28. Head scratching over the long-end inversion has become endemic. Examples of viewpoints spanning the spectrum can be found here, here, here, and here. On top of the long-dated inversion, the very shortest of bills flipped late in the week, as 1-month bills skied from 0.06% to 0.12% with 2-month bills holding at 0.05% on Thursday (11/18). There was no relief Friday, with 1-moth notes checking out at 0.11% and 2-month, 3-month, and 6-month bills yielding 0.04&, 0.05%, and 0.06%, respectively. Thus, the curve is inverted at both ends, with the steepest part of the curve between 2s and 20s. With inflation flaring, expectations are for yields at the low end of the curve to begin ramping higher as the "belly" 2s-10s begins to flatten out as well, with 10s rising at a slower rates than 2s, 3s, 5s, and 7s. Inversion could strike in that area as well, making the curve resemble a broken left to right staircase rather than a smooth slide from right to left. On the day of Joe Biden's faux inauguration, the spread between 5-year and 10-year notes was 65 basis points. As of Friday, that spread has been cut in half, to 32 basis points. Not to get too far out into the weeds (Money Daily is no bond expert, but a quick learner), the entire treasury curve is currently offering negative real yields. With inflation running at six percent or higher and bonds all the way out to 30 years offering less than two percent, real yields, depending on maturity, are between -3.05 (20s) and -5.80 (1-year). That's a condition that cannot prevail for long, and won't. Those who choose to believe that the Fed has a thumb pressed down firmly on the curve may be about to suffer extreme surprise as short maturities explode higher while long-dated ones stagnate or turn gradually higher. The net result will be an elevated curve, the Fed's zero-interest federal funds rate policy absolutely shattered, raging inflation, a bond market in chaos, and a recession unlike any seen before. Signs of the coming disaster continue to mount. Energy prices are being artificially inflated, and all the more so as the US and Europe enter the holiday season. One of the most notorious traditions of the "season of joy" are higher prices for gas at the pump and increased prices for fuel oil, natural gas, and propane. This year, in addition to food costing 8-20% more than it did a year ago, Big Oil will assuredly hike prices for all energy products. So, you'll enjoy holiday dinners and gift-giving with friends and relatives at prices roughly 15-20% higher than last year, making 2021 the most expensive holiday season ever. The gifts you give and receive, the food you eat, and the price of going over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house will all cost significantly more than last year. Let's go, Brandon. On the macro end, oil prices took a tumble during the week, as WTI crude was crashing from $80.88 a barrel to $75.68 by the close of business Friday on the NYMEX. Gas prices, which won't reflect any change in oil prices for at least a month in most cases, ticked up during the week to a national average of $3.417/gallon, according to GasBuddy. And, just to add an additional byte of desperation to the pre-holiday mood, cryptos were mashed for the week, with Bitcoin leading the way with steep losses, from above $66,000 the past Monday, to a low of $55,625 on Thursday. Bitcoin's price has recovered over the past few days, currently (Sunday, 11:20 am EDT) resting at $59,223.85. Hodlers and speculators in crypto should not be dismayed. Much of the decline comes with a sloppy provision in the recently-passed infrastructure bill that requires transactions in digital assets worth more than $10,000 to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service. There are only a few problems with the requirement in the bill. First, it's impossible to know who's sending your bitcoin (or portions thereof), since the system has built-in anonymity, unless it's coming from an exchange such as Coinbase or Binance or others. It's pretty easy to do transactions well below the $10,000 maginot line, and, a lot of bitcoiners are just saying KMA to the IRS these days, who want bitcoin and other cyrptos to be taxed as assets under capital gains rules, but as cash when one receives a sizable amount. The obvious solution is to acquire cyrptos and not convert them or move them until one is relatively assured Big Brother isn't watching, i.e., out of the country or in small amounts. Precious metals endured a mixed week, with prices at the wholesale level off by piddling amounts while retail prices began to exhibit strong demand as the holiday season approaches. Bulk silver was down just three percent. Gold lost just over one percent. Gold appears to be stabilizing in a range between $1842 and $1872, a positive sign for the bulls. In the past two weeks, silver has risen from $23.50 to as high as $25.31, but the move above $25.00 was short-lived, as the price fluctuated above and below that level on the COMEX. Both metals were hit hard on Friday, the decline pretty much all of gold's loss for the week. Silver peaked early in the week and suffered losses Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. At the retail end of the spectrum, silver premiums are between 12 and 20 percent for smaller quantities and weights at dealers, significantly higher (40-50%) for one-ounce items on eBay, whereas dealers and eBay sellers (often the very same people) are more in line, with eBay prices for one-ounce items only three to five percent higher than on retail store sites.
Gold price 11/12: $1,865.20
Silver price 11/12: $25.31 Here are the latest prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose significantly, pricing at $39.21, a gain of $1.31 from last week's price of $37.90. Well, that about does it for this pre-holiday edition of the WEEKEND WRAP. Remember that the holidays are mostly about spreading love, peace, and joy rather than cowering in fear of the government or an IRS audit.
At the Close, Friday, November 19, 2021:
For the Week:
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