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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

PRIOR COVERAGE:

1/23-1/29/2022
1/16-1/22/2022
1/9-1/15/2022
1/2-1/8/2022
12/26/21-1/1/2022
12/19-12/25/2021
12/12-12/18/2021
12/5-12/11/2021
11/28-12/4/2021
11/21-11/27/2021
11/14-11/20/2021
11/7-11/13/2021
10/31-11/6/2021
10/24-10/30/2021
10/17-10/23/2021
10/10-10/16/2021
10/3-10/9/2021
9/26-10/2/2021
9/19-9/25/2021
9/12-9/18/2021
9/4-9/11/2021
8/29-9/4/2021
8/22-8/28/2021
8/15-8/21/2021
8/8-8/14/2021
8/1-8/7/2021
7/25-7/31/2021
7/18-7/24/2021
7/11-7/17/2021
7/4-7/10/2021
6/27-7/3/2021
6/20-6/26/2021
6/13-6/19/2021
6/6-6/12/2021
5/30-6/5/2021
5/23-5/29/2021
5/16-5/22/2021
5/9-5/15/2021
5/2-5/8/2021
4/25-5/1/2021
4/18-4/24/2021
4/11-4/17/2021
4/4-4/10/2021
3/28-4/3/2021
3/21-3/27/2021
3/14-3/20/2021
3/7-3/13/2021
2/28-3/6/2021
2/21-2/27/2021
2/14-2/20/2021
2/7-2/13/2021
1/31-2/6/2021
1/24-1/30/2021
1/17-1/23/2021
1/10-1/16/2021
1/3-1/9/2021
12/27/20-1/2/2021
12/20-12/26/2020
12/13-12/19/2020
12/06-12/12/2020
11/29-12/05/2020
11/22-11/28/2020
11/15-11/21/2020
11/8-11/14/2020
11/1-11/7/2020
10/25-10/31/2020
10/18-10/24/2020
10/11-10/17/2020
10/4-10/10/2020
9/27-10/3/2020
9/20-9/26/2020
9/13-9/19/2020
9/6-9/12/2020
8/30-9/5/2020
8/23-8/29/2020
8/16-8/22/2020
8/9-8/15/2020
8/2-8/8/2020
7/27-8/1/2020
7/20-7/26/2020
7/13-7/19/2020
7/6-7/12/2020
6/29-7/5/2020
6/22-6/28/2020
6/15-6/21/2020
6/8-6/14/2020
6/1-6/7/2020
5/25-5/31/2020
5/18-5/24/2020
5/11-5/17/2020
5/4-5/10/2020
4/27-5/3/2020
4/20-4/26/2020
4/13-4/19/2020
4/6-4/12/2020
3/30-4/5/2020
3/23-3/29/2020
3/16-3/22/2020
March 14, 2020
March 13, 2020
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March 11, 2020
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March 9, 2020
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March 1, 2020

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Markets Unnerved, Lacking Confidence In January Jobs Data, Amazon Earnings, As Economic Crash Gains Traction

Friday, February 4, 2022, 9:23 am ET

Running a little behind here, so this post is likely to be incomplete as to the scope of Thursday's market action, though as accurate as possible.

From a purely market-watching perspective, Thursday's collapse on the major exchanges was spectacular. Trading was sluggish at the start, but stocks maintained a downside posture throughout the session. Just before noon ET was when things got really interesting. Averages fell to fresh lows of the day, which held until around 2:30 pm ET, when lower lows were made and the markets just kept deteriorating from there.

A few attempts by the PPT were suspected, especially at the 3:15 mark, after the S&P broke down and through support at 4500. There was a brief push back above that level which failed miserably. Essentially, the PPT attempted to push stocks higher, but got their backsides handed to them by market forces. This is what happens when riggers meet real markets. The onslaught of selling thoroughly defeated any attempt to bring stocks back. Expect to see more of this kind of behavior in the near term, as stocks and the entire global economy is being taken down.

While the financial talking heads blamed the entirety of Thursday's deep dive on Facebook (FB) and their $250 billion hit to their market cap, the bigger story is how overwhelming was the response by the market. One company may dominate trading for a day or part of a session, but the decline - especially on the NASDAQ - has been playing out since November, and with advanced vigor since the beginning of 2022.

Those who mistakenly believe the start of 2022 is just a "normal corrective phase" (Gregory Mannarino) fail to understand that big name stocks losing 25% of their value in one day or the fifth (yesterday) and seventh (January 5) largest ever point losses on the NASDAQ within a month of each other. No, those are definitely not normal. We also don't see many days in which the Dow and NASDAQ both fall more than 500 points. Those kinds of events are usually reserved for the start of major bear markets.

What the stock market has been serving up lately is poop on a stick. Next week, no stick. Next month, no poop. Just the way it's going.

Any good chart reader can clearly identify the pattern unfolding on the NASDAQ, of a deepening decline, interrupted only briefly by bouts of suspected euphoria and dip-buying. With a bottom in place at 13,352, how does the NASDAQ climb back to the November all-time high of 16,057.44? In short, it doesn't, at least not for a long time, likely measured in years, not months. The current decline is only the beginning. The NASDAQ hasn't even hit the official bear market spot of -20%, and the Dow and S&P are just a month out from their ATHs, 4796.56 for the SPX (Jan. 3), and 36,799.65 on the Dow (Jan. 4). The S&P is off by 6.7%; the Dow is down just 4.6%. To put it kindly, the bloom is off the rose and it's beginning to wilt.

With much of the commentary circulating more concerned with the Federal Reserve and its proposed interest rate adjustments and balnce sheet rolloff, what should concern astute traders more are levels, sentiment, and market trend action. Thursday was possibly one of the few sessions that can be considered true and without outside influence in the past few years, a breath of fresh air in a stinking casino. The trend is certainly on the bears' side and isn't likely to change any time soon. There is no catalyst large enough to lift the entire market from its current crash orientation.

As Friday's opening bell approaches, the market's attention turned to the January non-farm payroll data from the BLS at 8:30 am ET, showing:

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.

That may not be very accurate, since the ADP report from Wednesday showed huge employment declines in leisure and hospitality. Comments suggested that more waiters were changing career paths to become stock brokers. Somebody's got this all wrong.

Regardless of who's right or wrong, markets responded negatively to the report, probably on the notion of the unemployment rate rising 0.1% to 4.0%, a level that used to be known as "full employment." There's a good possbility that the labor number no longer matters much to markets, as being in the thoes of a severe downturn tend to focus more on loss of capital than to what may be causing it. Additionally, the BLS has had a reputation for being not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong and duplicitous, for a long time. After all, it is a department belonging to the executive branch, one which is largely considered either illegitimate, failing, or just plan wrong on a smorgasbord of matters.

Market riggers continue to seek ways to pull stocks back to their prior lofty perches, and are beginning to get more creative in their narrative-building, as the usual buy-the-dip and markets are solid claptrap is increasingly falling upon deaf ears. Following in the footsteps of Thursday's market disaster, Amazon released its earnings reports, which glaringly displayed a quarterly EPS of $27.75 on expectations of $3.77. The kicker is that much of the income was more or less a bookkeeping entry, per the company's statement:

Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc., which completed an initial public offering in November.

Without the value-added from the 18% stake in Rivian (RIVN), which has cratered nearly 2/3rds - from 172 in November to 60 on Thursday, the EPS would have been a miss. Add to that nugget the plan to increase the annual cost of Prime membership from $119 to $139, and some very sloppy forward guidance, and Amazon's big quarter, which boosted the share price some 14% after hours, is less than the headlines suggest. After all, Amazon shares were down nearly eight percent prior to the release, and are now indicated for a 10% jump at the open, so a two percent bump is all that is in store for those blindly following the hype.

Obfuscation and sensationalism are trademarks of stock riggers, but the market seems to have found them out presently.

A final word on Money Daily's recent commitment to focus more on crypto than equities: While the information presented in these notes will tend in that direction, it would be irresponsible to shy away completely from covering what may be the biggest story of the decade, that of the collapse of equity markets and advanced economies, which tie directly into the rise of crypto, especially in the case of Bitcoin.

With minutes to go before the opening bell, about the only things that are up are oil ($92.38 for WTI), the 10-year note (1.90%) and the VIX (25.59). Everything else, including gold, silver, and bitcoin, are pointing to a continuation of the unfolding, slow-motion crash.

Yes, crash. This is exactly what it looks like.

At the Close, Thursday, February 3, 2022:
Dow: 35,111.16, -518.17 (-1.45%)
NASDAQ: 13,878.82, -538.73 (-3.74%)
S&P 500: 4,477.44, -111.94 (-2.44%)
NYSE: 16,677.39, -227.12 (-1.34%) Bitcoin, 9:20 am ET: $37,722.83


Shorting Volatility, In-Your-Face Market Fraud Ripped NASDAQ, Dow, S&P Higher Through Four-Day Winning Streak

Thursday, February 3, 2022, 8:10 am ET

Stocks gained for the fourth straight session, sending the Dow back above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 to just below its 50-DMA.

The NASDAQ is still mired below its 200-day moving average, despite gaining 1065 points over the past four sessions. Tech stocks are very weak, with Facebook (Meta Platforms) (FB) and Spotify (SPOT) are the most recent victims, both suffering heavy losses in after-market trading upon release of their respective fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings reports.

For Facebook (can we stop with the clowning "Meta Platforms" new company name?), the decline of more than 20% - if it holds - wold rank among the top five worst one-day performances in market history.

Putting it in perspective, "a 20% decline in Meta would be more than the market value of 452 of the S&P 500's members." Obviously, Facebook is not worth $900 billion. It's probably worth something closer to about $50 billion and traders are expressing their displeasure over the mispricing on not just Facebook, but with many other tech companies. Of the original five FAANG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), only Apple anf Google have held up during the recent, ongoing tech wreck.

From a November 18 high of 3,696,06, Amazon (AMZN) checked in at 2,777.45 (1/26/22), marking a 25% decline. With most of tech-land stocks, it has recovered somewhat, closing at 3,012.25 on Wednesday, though still technically in a bear market (-20%).

Netflix (NFLX), which made an all-time high of 691.69 on November 17, has been devastated, dropping to a low of 359.70 on January 26, just days after releasing its 4th quarter 2021 report. Shareholder value was practically halved.

The trio of Netflix, Amazon, and Facebook made hay during the pandemic, but, now that people actually have to work for a living again, they're finding less time to binge-watch "Game of Thrones," chat with friends, or order stuff they don't need online. Their poor performance drove the NASDAQ down recently, that is, until the four-day running VIX-algo scam was put in place beginning last Thursday, when the ^VIX (CBOE volatility index) was put into play as it hit a peak at 33.

It was then and there, at 1:25 pm ET on Thursday, January 27 that some mysterious trader (probably the NY Fed's trading desk) began shorting the VIX, sending it lower. In other words, by selling volatility and stomping on the VIX like it was a very, very bad dog for four-and-a-half days, the VIX headed lower and the machines running stocks on the NASDAQ and other exchanges (85-90% of all trading is done by computers) interpreted that as a buy signal.

The VIX fell to a low of 20.52 late Wednesday afternoon, as all the indices were gaining on what looked to be a risk-on environment. Just compare a five-day chart of the VIX to one of the NASDAQ. The inverse relationship is obvious.

Except that it was all a fraud.

The measurement of risk in the market had been artificially reduced by the shorting activities of the mystery trader. Volatility, which usually means selling, had not really been reduced, just shaded. It's apparent from stock futures and the VIX in pre-market at 23.07 Thursday morning that there's plenty of volatility in this market. Tons of it, in fact, even though, according to the pre-planned, volatility spanking, North Korea could have nuked New York and Los Angeles and stocks still would have flown higher.

With the demise of Facebook front and center Thursday, it's likely that stocks will be not so enthusiastically sought or bought when the cash market opens, though, with the overnight ramp, that mystery trader can still short the VIX with vigor, given he or she has unlimited funds (which they almost surely do).

The market is rigged in many ways and this is just one example of how it gets done. The Fed and major banking interests can't have the market just plain crash while they stand there with their hands in their pockets. They had to act, so they tell themselves. And they did.

One positive coming out of this ongoing fraud is that Bitcoin is no longer correlating with the NASDAQ or the market in general, as has been the case recently. Stocks were up Wednesday, while the crypto market took a hit. If that's necessary for Bitcoin and other cryptos to trade on their own, without guidance from crypto ETFs or futures or whatever cockeyed manipulation Wall Street and the Fed can dream up, then that's just fine.

The more Wall Street investment houses and the Federal Reserve meddle in the crypto markets the faster will they be taken to the cleaners, if not by Bitcoin gains ripping off their faces, then by a stock market crash for the ages. Maybe both.

Tread lightly, carry a hard crypto wallet.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 2, 2022:
Dow: 35,629.33, +224.13 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: 14,417.55, +71.55 (+0.50%)
S&P 500: 4,589.38, +42.84 (+0.94%)
NYSE: 16,904.52, +74.82 (+0.44%)

Bitcoin, 8:07 am ET: $36,684.05


Bitcoin Adoption Growing at Breakneck Pace, Threatening Central Bank Fiat Currencies and the Global Economic Structure

Wednesday, February 2, 2022, 9:19 am ET

Stocks were up again on Tuesday, marking the third consecutive session that all of the major indices have closed on positive ground. The relief rally is beginning to morph into a sucker rally, pulling important stocks higher while the bulk of company shares remain underwater, as it were.

The Dow and S&P have gained back enough ground to find themselves between their 200-day and 50-day moving averages, a transition zone. The message being sent by the market is implying that January should best be forgotten despite the hordes still stung by deep declines during the first month of 2022.

The NASDAQ remains below its 200-day moving average, a worrying sign for plungers looking for swift gains in tech. All of the indices are far from record highs, so a string of positive days is probably in the cards.

It's all a big sideshow.

Gold closed exactly at $1800.00 per ounce on February 1, a level it has been traversing back and forth for the past year. It's unlikely to move much more than $50 off that line, as has been the case recently.

Silver started the month off with a 17-cent gain, to $22.60 at the NY close, but that is hardly a level at which stackers can become excited. Like gold, silver has been suppressed and will continue to be suppressed by the central banking cartel, until it is broken.

This is exactly why Bitcoin is the solution. Like purchases of gold and silver, it is money taken outside the banking system and put into a different brand. Bitcoin is essential to breaking the grip of central bank fiat money, and should be considered a weapon for freedom in that regard. Price fluctuations are temporary. Bitcoin buyers should expect to hold for a minimum of two to three years, or, as intellects as diverse as Max Keiser, Jack Dorsey, and Michael Saylor suggest, forever. Eventually, when prices begin to be measured in bitcoin rather than dollars and euros and yen, the greatest money migration in history will commence.

Today, bitcoin is a growing movement, as adoption rates remain high. Nigeria, where bitcoin is used as currency by 32% of the population, and El Salvador, where bitcoin is legal tender alongside the US dollar, are key constituencies to watch as the Bitcoin saga develops.

In El Salvador, which passed its legal tender laws on September 7, 2021, more people had bitcoin wallets than traditional bank accounts just one month later. Bitcoin adoption has been remarkably strong in the country, with more than two-thirds of the nation's population (6.5 million) actively using bitcoin.

In the United States and in other developed nations, bitcoin adoption has also been steady and last year, transaction volume in bitcoin exceeded those of American Express and Discover. Bitcoin took over third place worldwide behind Visa and MasterCard, and is growing at a 98% annual growth rate, a pace that could advance it to the #1 spot as early as 2023, and almost certainly in 2024.

Bitcoin is quickly becoming an alternative to traditional forms of money, at a time when the debt-based fiat currencies are experiencing rapid debasement, the opposite side of inflation, which is essentially a measure of purchasing power of a specific currency. Being a decentralized currency with a fixed supply, bitcoin is rightly being preferred over fiat currencies for investors with vision and anybody seeking an escape from the tyranny of central banking.

It is incumbent upon anybody who seeks freedom and a better future to research and purchase bitcoin, and only bitcoin before delving into other cryptocurrencies and tokens. Other crypto relies on bitcoin's stability and robust network effect, but none can match its extraordinary blockchain, which has proven beyond a doubt to be unhackable and unassailable by government regulators.

Bitcoin remains a deadly threat to central bankers and they are well aware of it, but have yet to discover a method by which to kill it, and, they won't. Banning it does not work; taxing it only encourages more people to move further away from the rule of inefficient governments.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 1, 2022:
Dow: 35,405.24, +273.38 (+0.78%)
NASDAQ: 14,346.00, +106.12 (+0.75%)
S&P 500: 4,546.54, +30.99 (+0.69%)
NYSE: 16,829.71, +169.94 (+1.02%)

Bitcoin, 9:16 am ET: $38,438.30


Fork in the Road: Choosing Crypto, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver over Fractional-Reserve, Debt-Based Fiat Currency

Tuesday, February 1, 2022, 9:37 am ET

"When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It!"

-- Yogi Berra

I've been at a fork in the road for nearly two years, staring down the alternate paths, one leading to rainbows and unicorns, the other despair and unsettling earthquakes.

It took a while to decide, if only because the unicorn path had been taken in the past, only to find that it was an uneven detour to the bad part of town. But, I took a few steps down that road in late 2020, and found it satisfying. In other words, I tiptoed into Bitcoin and made some money.

The two divergent paths are that of the old economy - stocks, bonds, rapacious market-controlling monstrosities like the NY Fed's trading desk and trillion dollar hedge funds like BlackRock - and the new economy of cryptocurrencies, replete with the one unassailable form of money - Bitcoin - and plenty of emerging, strange, and sometimes funny alternatives like Etherium, dogecoin, NFTs, smart contracts, and other mental constructs manifesting themselves as software, APIs, and various other forms integrated into the universe of crypto. According to coinmarketcap.com there are 17,260 Cryptos and 458 Exchanges with a market cap of $1.76 trillion.

OK, that's not much for an entire new universe, but it's been more than 12 years since Bitcoin opened the door to a new world of unregulated, decentralized money that doesn't depend on a central bank to distribute, nor a government to protect it with guns, bombs, and threats.

So, I'm taking the road less traveled to Bitlandia, or maybe I'll end up in El Salvador, which is where Bitcoin will either make it or break it. In any case, the weather is usually better on a year-round basis than any place in the United States, unless you'd rather be shoveling snow and shivering than swimming, surfing and drinking mai-tais on a beach.

What tipped me over? What changed my mind? Well, the outrageous ramping of the NASDAQ the past two days played a large role in sending me down the Bitcoin path. Over the past two sessions, Friday and Monday, the NASDAQ, avoiding what would have gone down as the worst January in its history, gained 890 points from its close on Thursday (1/27), a move of more than five percent in just two days. Mind you, this is after falling from its all-time high of 16,057.44 on November 19 of last year to 13,352.78 at the close on Thursday, a decline of some 16.84%, teetering on the edge of a confirmed bear market. Instead, the underhanded ground work left the NASDAQ at only the second-worst ever, the crown still retained by January, 2009.

This morning, AT&T (T) decided to cut it's dividend nearly in half, dropping it from $2.08 per share to $1.11, in yet another sign that the old economy is crumbling, and will continue to crumble until every last government worker is crying, "what happened to my benefits and where's my pension?"

The decision to take the rainbow and unicorn path should have been an easier one to make, but having spent the entirety of my adult life following, researching, analyzing, and occasionally trading in traditional fractional-reserve, debt-based markets, my natural normalcy bias kept pulling me in that direction, but, finally, having digested and being fully disgusted with the fake virus, fake election, fake president, fake vaccines, censorship on social and mainstream media, rising criminality, and threats from my own government if I choose to make my own decisions about what goes into my body, I'd had enough.

Crypto is often derided as being not "real", a fantasy, by its detractors, but, considering the choices available, I decided to go that way rather than continue along in a world that is not only not real, but wholly false, driven by greed and graft, criminals in nice suits, with legislation designed by corrupt lawmakers to suit their needs, above all else. At least crypto isn't as corrupted, though elements of the old economy continue to try.

Finally, the absence of any reporting on the Canadian Freedom Convoy currently in the process of overthrowing the government of Canada by shutting down Ottawa, the capitol, raised my ire to a point I could no longer be indecisive. If mainstream media wants to shield the public from a such a major news story (at one point, the convoy stretched some 45 miles; I'd call that newsworthy and I've been in the media business for 50 years), then it's time to fish or cut bait, or, as in my situation, take another route, fork off down the road and say good-bye to a system that is failing in almost all regards.

I was born in America. I probably won't die here, certainly not defending it or myself. That's a losing cause certain to inflict mass casualties on both sides. I don't really care to involve myself with any of that as I approach 70 years of age. I'll leave that sorting out to the more able-bodied and less well-informed.

From here forward, Money Daily will not focus on stocks as much as previously, though reporting on the story of the decline of the global financial system will remain a key function. I'll be covering Bitcoin and crypto in more depth along with other non-fiat assets, gold, silver, art, collectibles, businesses, etc.

All the best,

Rick Gagliano
Publisher, President, Chairman, Downtown Magazine Inc.

At the Close, Monday, January 31, 2022:
Dow: 35,131.86, +406.39 (+1.17%)
NASDAQ: 14,239.88, +469.31 (+3.41%)
S&P 500: 4,515.55, +83.70 (+1.89%)
NYSE: 16,659.78, +261.91 (+1.60%)


WEEKEND WRAP: Friday's Momentum-Chasing Rally; Canadian Truckers, Bitcoin's Emergence and the Fourth Turning

Sunday, January 30, 2022, 10:10 am ET

What a wild week.

Let's take a look at that huge ramp job on Friday.

First, it must be understood that almost all of the gains on Friday occurred within the last ninety minutes of trading. Are we to believe that at 2:30 pm ET on a Friday afternoon, at the conclusion of one of the most volatile weeks in memory, that everybody in the world decided to close their shorts and/or buy stocks like they were becoming rarities?

Well, yeah, sure. And anybody who believes that should not be out shopping for bargains on bridges.

Friday's insane, late-day upswing was the result of big money day=trading momentum chasing, and actually pretty standard action in bear markets. Some of the greatest one-day gains have happened in bear markets. Volatility - which does not mean exclusively selling - was and has been trending in a range of 25-32, meaning that the potential for explosive moves either way was very high.

Driven so greatly by computer algorithms, program trading kicked in, and the bandwagon was off and running. There is just as much chance that the coming Monday morning open will be to the upside as to the downside. In this market, there is no middle ground. You're either buying or selling, or you're out, which is a place where plenty of people have gone, to the sidelines, with cash, to watch the madness rather than participate in it. Short term, that may be the wisest move of all.

For the record, at 2:30 pm on Friday, the Dow was down down 80 points. It finished with a gain of 564 on the day. At the same time, the NASDAQ was up 63 points. It closed 417 points higher for the session, and the S&P 500 was up 10 points, but closed up 105. That was quite a move. Unfortunately, it left the major indices below their respective 200-day moving averages and simple 40-week moving averages, still a very, very bearish place to be.

Friday's massive pump was also responsible for sending all of the averages into positive territory for the week, though, just barely. The 1.65 gain on the NAZ and 0.52 advance on the NYSE Composite are not misprints.

While the stock market was experiencing a bull stampede that would have wowed the greatest cattle ranchers, treasuries were flatlining - which Gregory Mannarino, the self-appointed "Robin Hood of Wall Street" characterized as "normalizing", LOL - gold and silver were being stomped down and sledgehammered on the COMEX, and Bitcoin was hitting the highs of the day. Nothing odd about that. No, the world's primary cryptocurrency is supposed to follow or correlate perfectly with stocks. Again, anybody believing that needs to check to see if their wallet still has money in it.

Treasuries spent the week wheeling about, but overall flattening the curve, with the spread on 2s-30s falling from 106 basis points to 92. Yields on 2-year notes rose 14 basis points to end the week at 1.15%. The 10-year note rose three basis points (1.78%) and the 30-year was flat, at 2.07%. Should the Fed carry out their proposed tightening by raising the federal funds rate at the March FOMC meeting and trimming its balance sheet somewhere down the road, not only will the treasury complex flatline, it may also invert at various levels. The 2s-10s spread, which is the one most people use as a benchmark, is 63 basis points, but by May could be 10-12, or already inverted. The spread between the 7-year and 10-year is four, the 20s-30s is already inverted, with the 20-year bond yielding 2.14.

That inversion at the top of the curve isn't really cause for concern. It's not large, and it's happened before without deleterious effect to markets or the general economy. Mostly, it's just a measure of mispricing.

Bitcoin continued to hover above recent lows but still in a range between $35,570 and $38,960. Currently right about $38,000, the world's crypto reserve currency appears on the verge of a breakout, though its price is currently being played via Wall Street ETFs, a sad development for honest money. This correlation to fiat-backed assets is more than likely a passing fancy, though the potential for the fiat crowd to suppress the price - much as they do to gold and silver - cannot be ruled out. Eventually, central bank price suppression schemes will fail, though the stranglehold on precious metals has largely been in effect for more than 50 years. The breakout by precious metals from 2000 to 2010 and again from 2018 to 2020 were signals from all markets and coincided with washouts in equities.

The current consolidation in both cryptos and metals may proceed for a few more years, though, considering the current unsettled nature of markets, breakouts or breakdowns could occur within the next 18 months. Nothing is really "safe" these days. Gold, silver, and bitcoin remain the best choices for honest money.

Gold and silver smackdowns were largely expected. The slide in gold from $1847 to Friday's close of 1791.60 and silver's debasement from $24.32 to $22.46 were nothing more than the usual response from the fiat money crowd which hates competition and wishes to continue enslaving the world with debt-based, fractional reserve, fake currencies. Bah! to them.

Gold price 01/23: $1,835.60
Gold price 01/30: $1,791.60

Silver price 01/23: $24.27
Silver price 01/16: $22.46

Here are the latest prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin 35.90 51.95 41.46 39.69
1 oz silver bar 33.60 53.99 41.29 38.32
1 oz gold coin 1,897.20 1,983.80 1,918.20 1,908.38
1 oz gold bar 1,856.99 1,936.61 1,882.87 1,877.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell slightly over the course of the week, at $40.19, a decline of 88 cents from the January 23rd price of $41.07.

Oil prices continued to rise from $85.14 per barrel of WTI crude to a new 52-week high of $87.29. Gas prices are up eight to nine cents from a month ago and 93 cents from a year ago, with the national average at $3.37, according to GasBuddy.com

As another week turns the calendar from January to February, some light that Winter is heading toward Spring encourages. Markets remain extremely risky and volatile because markets hate uncertainty, a commodity of which there is plenty to spread around. Washington, DC, that bastion of corruption and criminality, appears intent on starting a war in Eastern Europe, it's sights set firmly on the graft vassal state of Ukraine, with the usual suspect, Russia, portrayed as the villain, once again. Apparently, the cold war having ended some 40 years ago has not yet made an impact on the septuagenarians and octogenarians so reluctant to cede their positions of power. These modern day Jacobins have little life left in them, yet continue to conspire against the American people.

For their part, American patriots remain stoic, and watchful, wistfully looking ahead to elections - which almost surely will be stolen or otherwise corrupted - to midterms in November and the prospects of re-electing Donald Trump as president in 2024. The virus panic - fading into the background since it has proven to be no more deadly than common seasonal flu and probably was just that from the very start - food shortages, statistical distortions (Friday's 4th quarter 2022 number of 6.7% was largely a canard caused by an incredibly large inventory build, counting the containers still on ships foundering of the West coast), empty shelves and runaway inflation have not yet been cause for widespread revolt. Americans remain content to just carry on, since the government has yet to take all of their freedoms away. Push will come to shove at some point.

The Canadian trucker Freedom Convoy may be a step forward for world freedom and an important economic event at the same time. The convoy, which stretched as long as 45 miles at some points has shut down the capitol, Ottawa, though you wouldn't guess that from the mainstream nightly news and Sunday morning shows, which have devoted exactly ZERO COVERAGE to the evolving story. The president, Justine Trudeau, has already been moved to a remote location, essentially already having abdicated his position.

Exasperated with government mandates, the convoy plans on remaining in Ottawa over the weekend, though a longer stay is almost certain, given the the government is unlikely to accede to the demands, a strategy that may prove devastating to the current power structure. Trudeau, who is extremely unpopular due to his election last year being on par with the disastrous 2020 US presidential election. He is, as in the US, widely regarded as not duly elected in a fair process and illegitimate. The longer the truckers and supporters persists, the looser becomes Trudeau's grasp on power. Should the truckers remain off the highways and away from their routines into the week, the potential for widespread commercial and social disruptions increases.

If the truckers hold fast, the Canadian government may fall. Similar political upheavals may erupt in Europe, Australia and in the United States.

There's more than a few things to be concerned about, mostly stemming from government overreach and dictatorial mandates and posturing, though a floundering Federal Reserve runs a close second. Meanwhile, the economy of El Salvador, the first nation on earth to codify Bitcoin as legal tender, is booming.

The Fourth Turning is upon us.

At the Close, Friday, January 28, 2022:
Dow: 34,725.47, +564.69 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: 13,770.57, +417.79 (+3.13%)
S&P 500: 4,431.85, +105.34 (+2.43%)
NYSE: 16,397.86, +245.75 (+1.52%)

For the week:
Dow: +460.10 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: +1.65 (+0.01%)
S&P 500: +33.91 (+0.77%)
NYSE: +0.52 (+0.00%)


Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. 2022, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

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