2021 NCAA Week 5 Picks

6:00 pm #10 Florida (-8 1/2, 55) at Kentucky - Don't look now, but the Wildcats are 4-0 and have a solid offense behind QB Will Lewis and RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., plus a bevy of receivers. The Kentucky defense may be coming around to form after a stellar effort in their 16-10 win at South Carolina last week.

The Gators shrugged off their 31-29 loss to Alabama with a 38-14 pounding of Tennessee last week and need to keep winning in hopes of doing a number on Georgia October 30, but they have this game, Vandy, and LSU in between. The Wildcats will be geared up, but their defense needs to step up. Florida will likely win and cover.

Coin Flip: Kentucky

Prediction: Gators 31 Wildcats 21

7:00 pm Mississippi State at #15 Texas A&M (-7, 46) - Excuse us, but didn't A&M just get whipped by Arkansas? And didn't the Bulldogs come within a field goal of upending LSU for a second straight season?

Oh, yeah, on both accounts. Plus, the one of the Bulldogs's wins was over NC State, who just topped Clemson last week. With starting QB Haynes King out with a broken leg, Zach Calzada has proven to be inefficient and often off target. Calzada was just 20-36 for 151 yards and a pick against the Razorbacks. The A&M defense kept them in the game, as they did in their 10-7 win over Colorado. Look for the Bulldogs to take out last week's frustration on the overrated Aggies.

Coin Flip: Texas A&M

Prediction: Bulldogs 28 Aggies 16

7:00 pm #21 Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3 1/2, 47 1/2) - This should be a battle royal, as Baylor finally got some respect after defeating Iowa State, 31-29, for their fourth straight win without a loss. The Cowboys enter the fray with the same record, holding off K-State for a 31-20 victory.

The Cowboys embarrassed the Bears last season with a 42-3 wipeout, but 2020 was a lost season for Baylor due to Covid-related scratches. Oklahoma State's three other wins were close calls, and this one is likely to be as well, but the Bears are hungry and could easily take this one.

Coin Flip: Baylor

Prediction: Bears 27 Cowboys 24

7:30 pm Indiana at #4 Penn State (-12, 53 1/2) - Michael Penix Jr. has just not looked the same player since being injured last season and the Hoosier defense is spending too much time on the field because of the inefficiencies on offense.

Penn State is looking every bit the part of a #4-ranked team at 4-0, with wins over Wisconsin and Auburn on the resume. Could be a blowout.

Coin Flip: Indiana

Prediction: Nittany Lions 42 Hoosiers 23

9:00 pm #22 Auburn at LSU (-3 1/2, 54 1/2) - Auburn has played only one quality opponent, Penn State, and they were outclassed in a 28-20 defeat on the road, and they'll have to prove themselves better than that at LSU. Prior to last year's 48-11 romp by Auburn, the prior four meetings between these two have been by margins of five points or fewer, so this one figures to be close.

The LSU defense has seen enough of Auburn QB Bo Nix, and will know how to defense him. LSU is always difficult in the trenches, so Auburn will likely have to take to the air, and that's a dangerous option.

Coin Flip: LSU

Prediction: LSU Tigers 29 Auburn Tigers 24

10:30 pm Arizona State at #20 UCLA (-3 1/2, 55 1/2) - At 3-1, Arizona State is a good enough team, but they're probably not at the same levels as the Bruins, who got downgraded a bit after losing to Fresno State a few weeks ago, 40-37. UCLA rebounded with a solid 35-24 win at Stanford and will be back home for this contest, giving them a comfort level.

The Sun Devils lost to BYU, 27-17, but looked solid in their 35-13 win over Colorado last week.

Coin Flip: Arizona State

Prediction: Bruins 37 Sun Devils 25

11:00 pm #18 Fresno State (-10, 65 1/2) at Hawaii - The Rainbow Warriors are 2-3 and lost at UCLA, 44-10, in their season opener. The Bulldogs topped the Bruins, 40-37, two weeks back. Fresno's only loss was a 31-24 downfall at Oregon, so that's no knock on them.

QB Jake Haener has a future in the NFL. Looking for a major blowout to close out the week.

Coin Flip: Hawaii

Prediction: Bulldogs 56 Rainbow Warriors 21

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IdleGuy.com April 2025, Vol. 2 #4